Introduction
The question of whether China could invade Taiwan and what the consequences would be is a topic of significant international concern.
As some experts predict that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, countries around the world must brace themselves for a potential reshaping of the global order.
An invasion would have profound regional implications for most of Asia and fundamentally alter the global order both politically and economically.
Historical Context
Taiwan, an independent nation since 1949, is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait. China views Taiwan as a renegade province and vows to eventually unify the island with the mainland. Cross-strait tensions have escalated since the election of Taiwan’s current President in 2016, with Beijing taking an increasingly hostile stance towards reunification.
Historically, Taiwan was governed by various actors, including the Netherlands, China, and Japan. After World War II, Taiwan was ruled by China with the consent of the UK and the US.
Following the Chinese civil war, Chiang Kai-Shek was exiled to Taiwan in 1949 and established a government there, dominating the island’s politics despite his followers making up less than 20% of its population.
Political Developments
For decades, Chiang and his successors established a quasi-dictatorship in Taiwan until democracy prevailed in 2000 with the election of Chen Shui-bian. This move alarmed Beijing as it disrupted years of peaceful relations.
China had earlier proposed the “one country, two systems” formula, offering Taiwan autonomy in exchange for reunification, which Taiwan rejected. In 2004, China passed an anti-secession law, reserving the right to use non-peaceful means if Taiwan attempted to secede.
In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen was elected as President of Taiwan, openly supporting independence, which further strained relations with China.
Taiwanese Sentiment and International Recognition
A survey by the National Chengchi University found that over 64% of Taiwanese identified as Taiwanese, while only 3% identified as Chinese. More than 77% of Taiwanese are willing to fight for the nation in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, this sentiment is not widely shared internationally.
Only 15 states maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and no government maintains formal ties with both Taiwan and China. Taiwan lacks a seat at the United Nations and is excluded from many international institutions at Beijing’s behest.
Despite this, the US has pledged to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons and warned that any Chinese attack would provoke “grave concerns” in Washington.
Likelihood of Chinese Invasion
Experts are divided on the likelihood and timing of a Chinese invasion. The top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific warned of an imminent invasion, while others interpret President Xi’s 2017 Party Congress Report as setting a deadline for reunification by 2049.
Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institute argues that China’s objective is more about negotiating a long-term political relationship than invasion.
However, Michael Shuman of the Atlantic Council warns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made a Chinese invasion more likely, arguing that autocrats worldwide see the US as a declining power.
China’s Invasion Strategy
Oriana Mastro of Stanford University outlines four main campaigns Beijing is preparing for:
Missile and airstrikes to disarm Taiwanese targets.
Blockade operations to cut off Taiwan from the outside world.
Attacks on US forces and bases in the Pacific to hinder US intervention.
Amphibious assault to directly invade Taiwan.
Mastro asserts that the first three campaigns are within China’s capability, but a full-scale invasion would strain its armed forces and invite international condemnation.
US and Taiwan's Defense Strategy
Taiwan’s military strength pales in comparison to China’s, and its defense strategy, known as the “porcupine strategy,” relies on asymmetric defense tactics. This strategy depends on US support, which is not guaranteed.
Experts like Michael Hunzeker argue that Taiwan has focused on high-tech capabilities to deter Chinese non-conventional warfare, but this strategy may not suffice against a direct attack. Richard Haas and David Sacks argue that the US must make a direct commitment to Taiwan’s defense to prevent Chinese miscalculation and potential war.
Ramifications of a Chinese Invasion
Even if China successfully invades Taiwan, it might struggle to occupy it. The ramifications of such an invasion would be profound, impacting the global economy, regional stability, and the world order.
Economic Impact
Taiwan is the world’s leading producer of semiconductor chips, crucial for electronics, vehicles, and weapon systems. Companies in Taiwan generated over 60% of the revenue from semiconductor manufacturers in 2020 and nearly 90% of advanced microchip production.
If China conquered Taiwan, it would control nearly 80% of global semiconductor production, affecting major companies like Microsoft and Apple and military defense contractors. President Joe Biden has urged Congress to increase US semiconductor production, but matching Taiwanese expertise will take years.
Regional Stability
China’s dominance would pose massive security concerns for regional powers like India, Japan, and Australia. Asian nations have integrated economically with China, assuming that its rise would be balanced by competing nations.
If China asserts unchecked influence, it would disrupt regional stability. Japan faces territorial threats from China, and India is threatened by Chinese incursions. Other nations would suffer from the instability caused by an invasion and the loss of economic ties with Taiwan.
Global Order
A successful Chinese invasion would potentially end the era of US military dominance. Asian nations depend on a US military presence to deter aggression. The US risks losing its military bases in the Pacific and its status as a global superpower.
US Representative Mike Gallagher argues that failing to support democratic allies would undermine US credibility and influence, leading to the end of its superpower status and the associated guarantees of prosperity, freedom, and human rights.
Conclusion
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have profound implications, reshaping the global order politically and economically.
While the likelihood of such an invasion is debated, its potential impact on the global economy, regional stability, and the balance of power cannot be underestimated.
The democratic world order could fall into the clutches of authoritarianism, fundamentally altering the international landscape.
Note: In this CAPF essay The Future of Taiwan Independence or Chinese Control, the world limit has been crossed to give you more information, you can take relevant portions as per your need. Further, we have given subheadings for your reference. When you write in the UPSC exam, you don't need to do that.
Relevance to UPSC and Other Competitive Exams
This essay on The Future of Taiwan: Independence or Chinese Control is significant for UPSC CSE, UPSC CAPF, Assistant Commandant, Essay Writing, Current Affairs, NDA, CDS, SSB Interview, AFCAT, IAS, IB ACIO, and Current News. Understanding the potential invasion of Taiwan by China provides insights into geopolitical strategies, international relations, and the global economic impact.
This knowledge is crucial for competitive exam preparation, offering valuable content for essays, interviews, and current affairs discussions.
Comments