Introduction
As high-stakes elections approach in over 50 countries, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in shaping voter education and influencing political discourse remains a topic of intense discussion
AI's ability to create deepfakes and personalized messages presents both opportunities and risks, challenging governments and organizations to adapt to this rapidly changing technological landscape.
AI's Influence on Elections in 2024
In 2024, AI is poised to significantly influence elections across the globe. A notable example is a video of jailed former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan claiming victory for his allies in the general elections on February 8th, which caught the world's attention.
The reason being, Khan’s party used AI to replicate his voice. According to Jibran Ilyas, a Chicago-based campaigner for Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, this initiative helped deliver a message of hope and maintained Khan's crucial image within the party.
The Global Landscape of AI in Elections
2024 will see high-stakes elections in over 50 countries, including India (already over), the US, the UK, Indonesia, Russia, Taiwan, and South Africa. One of the biggest challenges voters will face will be the prevalence of fake news, especially as AI technology makes it easier to create and disseminate.
The Risks of AI in Elections
The World Economic Forum's 2024 Global Risk Report ranked AI-derived misinformation and its potential for societal polarization as one of its top 10 risks over the next two years.
Even industry insiders like OpenAI founder Sam Altman and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt are wary of the technology’s implications.
Schmidt, in an article for Foreign Policy Magazine, warned that "the 2024 elections are going to be a mess because social media is not protecting us from false generative AI."
How AI Can Disrupt Elections
While elections take place within local contexts, the information influencing voter decisions increasingly comes from digital platforms like Facebook, Google, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
According to a November 2023 survey by marketing research firm Ipsos, 87% of respondents in 16 countries registered disinformation on social media as one of the biggest factors influencing elections.
Katie Harbath, founder of election consultancy Anchor Change, noted that although social media has been around for over a decade, very few governments have adapted to regulating it. With AI added to the mix, the challenge is even more pertinent. AI allows people with minimal technical expertise to disseminate fake text, images, videos, and audio widely.
The Four Main Threats of AI in Elections
A report published by the Brookings Institute identified four main threats posed by AI:
Increased quantity of misinformation
Increased quality of misinformation
Increased personalization of misinformation
Involuntary proliferation of fake but plausible information
AI's Influence on Human Interaction
Historian Yuval Noah Harari highlighted the potential for AI to form intimate relationships with people through its mastery of language, using that intimacy to personalize messages and influence worldviews.
Harari warned, "It is utterly pointless for us to spend time trying to change the declared opinions of an AI bot, while the AI could hone its messages so precisely that it stands a good chance of influencing us."
Misinformation's Impact on Different Demographics
Teenagers are significantly more likely to buy into fake information, underscoring Generation Z's broad relationship with social media.
A report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate found that 60% of American teenagers agree with four or more harmful conspiracy statements compared to 49% of adults.
Differing Perspectives on AI's Threat
While several historians and political scientists are wary of the perils of AI, many others also believe that the threat is overblown. In a report titled Misinformation on Misinformation, University of Zurich fellow Sacha Altay argued that unreliable news constitutes a small portion of people’s information diet and that most people don’t share fake news.
Altay writes that "alarmist narratives about misinformation should be understood as a moral panic," which repeats itself cyclically.
Case Studies: AI's Role in Recent Elections
In 2023, an AI-generated image of Donald Trump falling down a set of stairs was viewed nearly five million times.
During the final weeks of the 2023 Argentinian Presidential campaign, Javier Milei published an AI-manipulated image of his rival in communist attire, which was viewed by over three million people.
In Taiwan's January 2024 elections, a 300-page e-book with false sexual allegations about candidate Tsai Ing-wen circulated on social media. AI-generated avatars read out different parts of the book in videos on various platforms.
AI in Indian Elections
In India, where a considerable fraction of the electorate gets their information from social media or messaging apps, AI is a potent and affordable tool
According to a political consultant, content generated by language models such as ChatGPT is often used to construct messages shared across various WhatsApp groups. For a small monthly fee, parties can hire administrators to control these groups and disseminate AI-generated propaganda against rival candidates.
Jaspreet Bindra, founder of the Tech Whisperer, noted that for the Indian electorate, personalizing messages could be particularly useful
As per him:. "Personalizing messages at scale but for small segments, minor sub-segments, like parts of the constituency or villages or the Panchayat could be exceedingly effective for an electorate which is very diverse and with literacy levels that are not particularly very high."
Positive Uses of AI in Elections
Despite the risks, AI can also positively impact elections by helping to generate campaign content and create microtargeting messaging.
Examples of movements and candidates that have leveraged AI and social media include the Black Lives Matter movement and the Congressional campaign of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Katie Harbath highlighted that AI can enable campaigns to "draft more compelling speeches, press releases, social media posts, and other materials." This could level the playing field and allow for a more diverse expression of opinions.
AI and Voter Education
AI's capabilities extend to enhancing voter learning. Large language models can distill policies and present them in an accessible format, providing citizens with the opportunity to engage with complicated content in a simple way.
For instance, an individual could use a language model to summarize a legislative bill or court judgment
This personalization can make it easier for voters to write to lawmakers and engage in the political process.
Historical Impact of AI in Elections
Donald Trump's AI-generated image and Javier Milei's AI-manipulated image are examples of how AI has already influenced recent elections.
In Slovakia's September 2023 elections, an AI-manipulated audio recording circulated during the moratorium period, spreading misinformation about the leader of the Progressive Slovakia party. Although the audio was later denounced as fake, the incident highlighted the potential impact of AI on elections.
AI's Influence on Future Elections
As the 2024 elections approach, AI's role in electoral politics continues to evolve
While AI presents opportunities to enhance voter education and campaign strategies, it also poses significant challenges in terms of misinformation and societal polarization.
Conclusion
AI's ability to create deepfakes and personalized messages presents both opportunities and risks for elections.
While it can enhance voter education and campaign strategies, it also poses significant challenges in terms of misinformation and societal polarization.
The impact of AI on future elections remains a topic of intense discussion and concern.
(AI in elections, artificial intelligence impact on voting, election misinformation, deepfake technology in politics, AI voter education, social media influence on elections, AI-generated political content, personalized political messages, AI and democracy, future of elections with AI, UPSC, CAPF, CDS, NDA, SSB, AFCAT, CSE, IAS, IB ACIO, Current Affairs, News)
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